Probability

Lesson 8 of 14

Joint Distributions

Joint, marginal, and conditional distributions; covariance and correlation.

Joint, marginal, conditional

For two random variables, the joint distribution f(x,y)f(x,y) gives probabilities of pairs. Marginals integrate one variable out: fX(x)=∫f(x,y) dyf_X(x) = \int f(x,y)\,dy. Conditionals slice and renormalize: fY∣X(y∣x)=f(x,y)fX(x)f_{Y|X}(y|x) = \frac{f(x,y)}{f_X(x)}.

Independence means the joint factorizes: f(x,y)=fX(x)fY(y)f(x,y) = f_X(x) f_Y(y), so every slice looks the same. Marginals alone never determine the joint: the dependence structure is extra information (in finance, that structure, the copula, is where correlation risk hides).