Problem bank

Problem 213 of 333MediumFinanceP213

Will an at-the-money call finish in the money?

  1. A stock trades at 100 with volatility σ=20%\sigma = 20\% and the risk-free rate is r=0r = 0. Consider an at-the-money call (K=100K = 100). (a) What is the risk-neutral probability that it finishes in the money for T=1T = 1 and for T=4T = 4? (b) Is it above or below one half, and why? (c) If the stock's real drift is μ=10%\mu = 10\%, what is the real-world probability for T=1T = 1, and does it affect the price?