Problem bank

Problem 238 of 333HardStatisticsP238

Is this spread really mean-reverting?

  1. You regress a daily pairs spread on its own lag (with an intercept) over T=250T = 250 days and get ϕ^=0.97\hat\phi = 0.97 with standard error 0.0150.015. A colleague says: "The t-statistic for ϕ=1\phi = 1 is −2.0-2.0, below −1.645-1.645, so we reject the random walk at 5% and the spread mean-reverts with a half-life of about 23 days." What is wrong with this argument?