Problem bank

Problem 323 of 333EasyStochastic CalculusP323

How precise is realized volatility?

  1. A stock's log price is modeled as Xt=μt+σWtX_t = \mu t + \sigma W_t with σ=20%\sigma = 20\% and μ=10%\mu = 10\% a year. You estimate σ2\sigma^2 from one year of data with the realized variance

    RV=∑i=1n(Xti−Xti−1)2RV = \sum_{i=1}^{n} (X_{t_i} - X_{t_{i-1}})^2

    over nn equal steps.

    (a) Take μ=0\mu = 0 first. Find E[RV]E[RV] and the standard deviation of RVRV for daily data, n=252n = 252. Roughly how many volatility points of error does that give for σ\sigma?

    (b) How many steps do you need for the relative standard error of RVRV to be 1%? About how many 5-minute bars per trading day is that?

    (c) Now put the drift back. How much does it bias RVRV at n=252n = 252? Can more frequent sampling pin down μ\mu as well?