Problem bank

Problem 324 of 333MediumStochastic CalculusP324

Did it touch the level on a day it closed flat?

  1. Model a stock's intraday log return, measured from the open, as σWt\sigma W_t for t∈[0,1]t \in [0, 1] (one trading day), with daily volatility σ=1%\sigma = 1\%.

    (a) Before the day starts, what is the probability that the log return reaches +1%+1\% at some point during the day?

    (b) After the close you learn that the stock finished exactly unchanged. Given that, what is the probability that the log return reached +1%+1\% at some point?

    (c) Same question if the log return at the close was +0.5%+0.5\%.