Problem bank

Problem 332 of 333HardStochastic CalculusP332

The variance of a CIR short rate

  1. Under the risk-neutral measure the short rate follows CIR,

    drt=λ(θ−rt) dt+σrt dWt,dr_t = \lambda(\theta - r_t)\,dt + \sigma\sqrt{r_t}\,dW_t,

    with r0=2%r_0 = 2\%, θ=5%\theta = 5\%, λ=0.8\lambda = 0.8 and σ=0.15\sigma = 0.15.

    (a) Does the Feller condition hold?

    (b) Apply Itô to rt2r_t^2 and use the result to find Var(rt)\mathrm{Var}(r_t) for every tt.

    (c) Evaluate the mean and standard deviation of r1r_1, and the stationary standard deviation. Compare these with a Vasicek model that has the same λ\lambda, θ\theta and r0r_0 and a constant volatility equal to CIR's local volatility at θ\theta.