Finance & Options

Why the Odds Don't Matter When Pricing an Option

Why an option’s price doesn’t depend on the probability the stock goes up.

What to remember

  • Price = cost of the replicating portfolio.
  • The risk-neutral q makes the stock grow at r; the real p never enters.
  • Parity: C − P = S − K e^(−rT).
Read the lessonRisk-Neutral Pricing, with a checkpoint at the end.