Probability

Lesson 1 of 14

Sample Spaces and Events

The formal setup of probability: sample spaces, events, and the three axioms.

The setup

Roll two dice. What is P(sum=7)P(\text{sum} = 7)? Before answering, define the machinery. The sample space Ω\Omega is the set of all possible outcomes, here 36 equally likely ordered pairs. An event is a subset of Ω\Omega: "sum = 7" is {(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}\{(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)\}, six outcomes, so P=6/36=1/6P = 6/36 = 1/6.

Getting the sample space right is half of every probability puzzle. Most "paradoxes" come from silently using the wrong Ω\Omega: unordered instead of ordered pairs, or outcomes that aren't equally likely.